Desarrollo de una aplicación informatica para gestion de riesgos utilizando el método de Montecarlo

Abstract

Risk management is a fundamental activity for the control of engineering projects. For this purpose, a computer application has been developed in which certain variables or activities, which can be introduced by more uncertainty, represent their probability of occurrence by statistical functions, which after obtaining the cumulative density function, it is possible to apply random values. These resulting values are those that will be used to obtain the duration of the project or its total cost under a certain probability. All this allows us to verify the risk that is acquired when it is decided to conclude a project in a time equal to or less than the estimated one, for example by imposing a schedule for its rapid execution, or for example, how we can conclude the project with a cost less than planned and at what risk. For this, a computer programming is used in Excel, with which it is possible to propose different scenarios.