PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE LIFE-CYCLE COSTS OF RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE POWER PLANTS

Abstract

For any modern society to develop, it is needed an energy system ensuring a constant supply. At the heart of this system should be abundant resources, obtained at a reasonable cost and easily transported. These resources must also be of a reasonable quality. Throughout its history, humanity has used two crucial criteria when choosing energy systems: technical availability and economic viability. Fortunately, in the last few decades, environmental and social aspects have been taken into account for this decision. In spite of this, in the real decision-making processes, the economic pillar remains as the most important one, both in the public and private sectors. This paper presents a probabilistic model for assessing the life-cycle costs of renewable and non-renewable power plants. It is based on the MIVES-Monte Carlo method, employing requirement trees, value functions, the analytic hierarchy process and Monte Carlo simulation. The model makes it possible to compare different types of renewable and non renewable power plants according to economic criteria.