ESTIMACIÓN DEL MARGEN DE GESTIÓN DEL PROYECTO DE CONSTRUCCIÓN DE UN BUQUE TIPO FERRY MEDIANTE EL MÉTODO DE MONTECARLO

Abstract

The naval sector of new buildings is characterized by high cost programs and by a low definition grade in the tender stages. With these requirements, an initial highly-competitive and acceptable risk budget should be developed. For this reason, it is usual in this field that a management margin is defined, in order to cover probable range increments, as well as probable deviations that could trigger economic losses. The management margin definition is usually carried out based on the shipyard experience. Problems arise when the shipyard does not count on enough experience in the concrete type of vessel to be built. In this research, the use of the extension triangular Montecarlo’s model is proposed, with the aim of calculating the likelihood of accomplishment of the calculated budget, and, from this result, estimate the management margin that provides enough confidence to execute the project with the economic risk defined by the organization. The proposal introduced in this study allows managers to obtain a more optimal estimation of the management margin, reducing therefore economic risks.