Modelo basado en Dinámica de Sistemas para pronóstico de resultados de planificación-inversión y ejecución de proyectos industriales

Abstract

The objective of this article is to propose a model based on dynamic interrelationship equations, for forecasts of planning-investment results and execution of industrial projects. The Conceptual Model was built from - in the first instance - the root definition of Soft Methodology-SSM systems. In the case of the proposed Conceptual Model, the methodology of building dynamic models was used, so that this model is consistent with the use of causal relationships through loops or causal loops, according to the studies of Peter Senge and John Sterman. This model translates the interactions of strategic thinking, portfolios, projects and production, in order to generate the explanation of the forms of growth and decrease in the real system. The Forrester Diagram was made through the use of System Dynamics. As a way of validating the model, scenarios were carried out in the Colombian poultry sector, in order to observe the behavior of the systems. The proposed Conceptual Model and the Forrester Flow Model have an innovative character, because they allow to see, as a whole, the strategic management of projects in the industries, which is a different approach to existing linear models