La gestión de riesgos, aplicando simulación de Montecarlo y las metodologías Hazid y Hazop

Abstract

The present investigation will study the process of risk management, applying methods that are usually used in other disciplines such as finance and engineering.

In professional practice, the Project Manager, teams, contractors, and other stakeholders of a business are faced with possible events to become risks. When this happens they impact on the project, its resources, times to completely stop a phase, deliverable or activity with its economic impact.

The Hazid and Hazop methods are used to identify risks, followed by qualitative and quantitative analysis, complemented by exhaustive monitoring of the variables exposed to risk, which are determining factors in project management.

By correctly applying Montecarlo simulation on the schedule, the risk of the activities is obtained with its consequent impact on time and costs. The baseline of the project contains probable and possible results.

The professional analysis of establishing the possible events of risks and the impacts in the schedule in combination with other methods, improves the decision making and the management of the projects in conditions of uncertainty.