ANÁLISIS CUALITATIVO EN LA EVALUACIÓN DE RIESGOS EN INSTALACIONES FOTOVOLTAICAS: CASO DE ESTUDIO EN REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA

Abstract

Management and risk assessment are key requirements for the financial viability of renewable energy projects. In the Dominican Republic, banks require a risk analysis covering technical, environmental and economic considerations to access financing. Therefore there is a need for practical tools to help potential investors understand the risk and thus reduce the chance of it occurring. Thus investors can evaluate the profitability, the risks, and their impact on renewable energy facilities more easily. This paper focuses on evaluating the likelihood and impact of risks (high, medium, low) to determine the priority by which they must be addressed. To do this we combine probability and impact matrix with multiple criteria decision-making methods, namely Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We apply qualitative risk analysis to a solar power system in the Dominican Republic. Experts determine the severity of the risks in the design of the project. The urgent priority is modeled in terms of time, cost, performance and risk severity. Qualitative analysis cannot guarantee the complete success of a project, but it can help us to decide what uncertainties to deal with before and throughout its lifetime.