MODELOS DE PREDICCIÓN DE BAJAS EN LICITACIONES. ESTADO ACTUAL Y NUEVAS TENDENCIAS

Abstract

Showed the relationship with tendering and starting from a previous account of the utility of certain tools that reflect the experience and the facts occurred in bidding processes (in a previous paper) the focus of this article is making an historic journey of the main models for Tendering Price Forecast until current times. Based on an analysis of Pim’s Equal Probability Model will be presented a series of more modern models that have been improving gradually the forecast quality in the last 50 years. The aim of this work, not delving into the purely mathematical basis of these models, but rather to collect their basic design to display his philosophy in the handling of data and variables by which it is feasible to anticipate, with a margin of inaccuracy, consistent outputs with the reality of a forthcoming tender. Article finish with a summary of the emerging trends in the prediction models for Tender Price Forecasting and with a brief of weaknesses and gaps that still exhibits those models. Keywords: Bidding, Tender, Auction, Forecast, Tender Price, Construction, Skitmore