ANÁLISIS DE SERIES DE NOTICIAS PARA INTRODUCIR LA CONFLICTIVIDAD EN EL MODELO DE PREDICCIÓN DE INCENDIOS FORESTALES PARA GALICIA

Abstract

Forest fires are one of the major environmental problems facing Galicia, whose severity is also increased, given the clear evidence that up to 90% of them occur intentionally. This makes it necessary to conclude the concurrence of certain spurious interests and to take into account the conflicts that have arisen around the Neighborhood Forests in the Common Hand, since the occurrence of forest fires may be an expression of this. This reality, however, has been overlooked by scholars, who in general have chosen to reproduce fire prediction models from regions very dissimilar to Galician, where intentionality is nonexistent or anecdotal. For this reason, in order to adapt the studies to the Galician reality, a spatial database based on the journalistic news published in the digital press between 1995 and 2015 is elaborated, as they may account for conflicts that have undesired effects . Subsequently, after its thematic classification, its statistical and spatial relationship with the fires will be analyzed, in a later analysis, to integrate the variable "conflict" in the fire predictor model in order to better fit the models.