Comparación de diversos tests estadísticos en la detección de puntos de cambio en series de precipitaciones máximas

Abstract

Rainfall frequency analysis for different durations is an important task within hydraulic and hydrologic engineering projects. Therefore, it is important the detailed knowledge of the rainfall data series that will be the base of future projects. The existence of break points or inhomogeneities in the data series can compromise the quantile estimation and has to be considered if the aim is working in future predictions. In this work six statistical tests have been applied to historical data series of extreme daily annual rainfall from eight weather stations at the Umbria region (Italy). The parametric tests SNHT and Buishand, and the non-parametric ones, Pettit, Cusum, Mann-Kendal and Mann-Whitney were applied in order to compare the results from different kind of tests. All of the tests found the same results for four of the data series analyzed, where no break point was detected. Nevertheless, for the rests of data series some inhomogeneities were found, mainly detected by the non-parametric tests. These break points should be considered for future applications of the data series.